September 2026 North America Bizav Activity: ARGUS TRAQPak Beats the Forecast

A soft September that wasn’t

Private Jet Card Comparisons (8 October 2026), summarizing ARGUS TRAQPak, reported that North American private jet flight activity rose about 0.9% year over year in September. ARGUS had projected a slight decrease of about 0.1% — which would have been the first negative YoY result of 2026. NBAA Daily (9 October) carried the same headline uptick and noted the surprise against that forecast. Analysts now expect October at +1.1% YoY.

Travis Kuhn, Senior Vice President at ARGUS, told Private Jet Card Comparisons that early-month indicators had pointed to a decline, and that the positive finish continues to show resilience heading into a typically busy Q4 — with concern areas still on the board.

Categories mixed; fractional carried the tape

By aircraft category year over year, turboprops led at +4.8% and small cabin rose +3.6%. Midsize slipped about 1.1%; large cabin was the softest at −7.0%. By operating segment, fractional rose about 7.2% — the largest segment gain — Part 135 +3.0%, and Part 91 −3.4%.

NBAA Daily highlighted the large-cabin fractional print: +13.9% YoY. Private Jet Card Comparisons breaks fractional further: midsize +7.1%, small cabin +6.8%, turboprop +0.2%. On Part 135, turboprops led at about +7.5% with small cabin +4.1% and midsize +1.0%; large cabin was the only Part 135 cabin down, at −4.9%. Part 91 softness was concentrated in large and midsize cabin — each −13.3% — while small cabin +1.9% and turboprop +2.9% stayed positive.

Month-over-month: calendar noise and a regional split

Versus August, September rose 1.9% overall. Average flights per day were up about 5.3% because September had one fewer day. Six of eight major North American regions gained month over month. The Southwest and the South each posted double-digit MoM jumps (exact percentages not stated in the source). The Northeast led declines at about −16.9%, followed by the Caribbean at −14.4%.

Desk takeaway

For charter quoting into Q4, treat the headline +0.9% as a mix story, not a uniform lift: fractional — especially large-cabin fractional — is carrying more of the YoY gain, while owned (Part 91) large and midsize cabin remain soft. Empty-leg and on-demand options still live on our live empty-leg board and Market Intelligence.

Verified data & source

Every quantitative statement below is drawn from ARGUS TRAQPak figures as reported by Private Jet Card Comparisons (Doug Gollan, 8 October 2026) and the NBAA Daily digest (9 October 2026). North American private jet flight activity rose about 0.9% year over year in September after ARGUS had predicted a decrease of about 0.1% (body text — not the conflicting headline “0.1% gain”); that forecast miss would have been the first negative YoY print of 2026. October is forecast at +1.1% YoY. By category YoY: turboprops +4.8%, small cabin +3.6%, midsize −1.1%, large cabin −7.0%. By segment YoY: fractional +7.2%, Part 135 +3.0%, Part 91 −3.4%. MoM: September +1.9% vs August; average flights per day +5.3% (September had one fewer day). Regional MoM: Northeast −16.9%, Caribbean −14.4%; Southwest and South each posted double-digit MoM jumps (exact percentages not stated). Fractional detail YoY: large-cabin +13.9%, midsize +7.1%, small cabin +6.8%, turboprop +0.2%. Part 135 detail YoY: turboprop +7.5%, small cabin +4.1%, midsize +1.0%, large cabin −4.9%. Part 91 detail YoY: large cabin −13.3%, midsize −13.3%, small cabin +1.9%, turboprop +2.9%. Travis Kuhn (SVP, ARGUS) is cited only as qualitative context. Separate outlets are cited separately (ADR-010). No invented traffic totals or blended percentages.

Key verified statements (ARGUS TRAQPak North America business aviation activity, September 2026 (Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026; NBAA Daily, 9 October 2026)):

• North American private jet flight activity rose about 0.9% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026; NBAA Daily, 9 October 2026).
• ARGUS analysts had predicted a slight year-over-year decrease of about 0.1% for September 2026 North American private jet flight activity — which would have been the first negative YoY result in 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons body text, 8 October 2026).
• ARGUS TRAQPak analysts forecast a 1.1% year-over-year increase in North American private jet flight activity for October 2026 (Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Turboprops posted a 4.8% year-over-year increase in North American private jet flights in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Small cabin jets flew 3.6% more North American flights year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Midsize jets saw a year-over-year decrease of about 1.1% in North American flights in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Large cabin jets recorded 7.0% fewer North American flights year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Fractional operations increased about 7.2% year over year in North America in September 2026 — the largest growth among business segments (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Part 135 operations recorded 3.0% more North American flights year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Part 91 operations fell about 3.4% year over year in North America in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• September 2026 North American private jet flight activity rose 1.9% month over month versus August (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Average North American private jet flights per day rose about 5.3% in September 2026 versus August; September had one fewer day than August (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• The Northeast recorded the largest regional month-over-month decrease in North American private jet flight activity in September 2026, about 16.9% (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• The Caribbean recorded 14.4% fewer North American private jet flights month over month in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• In North America in September 2026, the Southwest and the South each recorded double-digit month-over-month jumps in private jet flight activity (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026; exact percentages not stated in source).
• Large-cabin fractional flights in North America rose 13.9% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026; NBAA Daily, 9 October 2026).
• Midsize fractional flights in North America rose 7.1% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Small cabin fractional flights in North America rose 6.8% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Turboprop fractional flights in North America rose 0.2% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Part 135 turboprop flights in North America rose about 7.5% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Part 135 small cabin flights in North America rose 4.1% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Part 135 midsize flights in North America rose 1.0% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Part 135 large cabin flights in North America fell 4.9% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Part 91 large cabin flights in North America fell 13.3% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Part 91 midsize flights in North America fell 13.3% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Part 91 small cabin flights in North America rose 1.9% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).
• Part 91 turboprop flights in North America rose 2.9% year over year in September 2026 (ARGUS TRAQPak via Private Jet Card Comparisons, 8 October 2026).

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